We anticipate this week’s storage report to show +73 Bcf. A storage report of +73 Bcf would be compared to +71 Bcf last year and +90 Bcf for the five-year average. Fundamentals support July contracts at $3.25/MMBtu, but if positioning was liquidated quickly, we could see this fundamental floor fall through and trade much lower. Welcome to the storage forecast edition of Natural Gas Daily! We expect a +73 Bcf change in the storage report for the week ended May 19. A storage report of +73 Bcf would be compared to +71 Bcf last year and +90 Bcf for the five-year average. Our estimate was revised 8 Bcf higher than last Friday. Source: ICE Our storage forecast this week is 6 Bcf higher than the ICE settlement report of 67 Bcf. We revised higher our storage injection estimate by 8 Bcf from last week as physical facility data showed a much higher implied injection than what we had expected. As a result, our range estimate increased to 68 Bcf to 79 Bcf and our estimate is in the middle. Natural gas prices are falling again today after back-to-back yo-yo price action with weather forecasts disappointing to the downside. We wrote in our premium daily yesterday that traders we talked to weren’t too optimistic about the bullish price action as speculators are extremely long according to the latest CFTC report, and some believe that a near-term price correction is now in the making. Currently, fundamentals support July contracts at $3.25/MMBtu, but if positioning was liquidated quickly, we could see this fundamental floor fall through and trade much lower.
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