GBP/INR WEEKLY-watch 82.15 for reversal or super bearish trend

GBP-INR TIPS for 28 Aug. to 1 Sep. week 2017

Pound rupee future this week closed at 82.12 with loss. This was forth losing week for pound and in these 4 weeks tumbled from top of 85.18 to low of 81.9 means lost almost 3.3 rupee in 1 month period. This week pound rupee future hit high 82.87 while low was at 81.9, total almost 1 rupee weekly range and negative closing on continues selling.

 

Pound rupee weekly chart price trend is down and now suggesting medium term bounce back move is over. Now trading below all major averages on weekly chart with strong bearish price patterns. On upside 83 is 5 and 83.2 is 20 weeks average levels and first resistance on weekly chart. Above it 84.75 is 50 weeks average level and strong long term resistance zone. Pound tested previous major bottom of 82 rupee and now next will be 80 rupee if fall continues. Weekly chart RSI is at 43 with bearish divergence and sell signal while MACD is below zero with fresh corrective pattern which might eventually turn into sell signal.

Pound in month of august opened positive but failed to hold up and we saw bearish breakdown below 84 rupee. Pound rupee future after breakdown hit august bearish target of 83.3 and 82.15 and now watch this bottom support of 82.15 for reversal or super bearish breakdown towards my next target zones 81.4 and then possibly 80.25.

On daily chart, pound rupee future price trend is bearish and trading below all short term averages. On upside 82.45 is 5 days average and 83.15 is 20 and 83.33 is 50 days average level and strong resistances. Daily chart RSI is 31 and now looking oversold and MACD below zero with bearish crossovers and divergences and forming bottom.

From investment point of view, pound is downtrend and recorded 2017 low near 80 and was bouncing back towards resistance level of 88.5 and we saw high of 85.19 in 3 weeks back and now tested previous support of 82. If falls below 82 then expect 80 rupee and then eventually my 2017 bearish target of 76.5 rupee.

In last 7 months, pound rupee future 4 negative months and 3 positive months which reflecting its bearish nature and look like resumed downtrend after bounce back in month of august because this month candle is red with 3.3 rupee downside move from the top!!

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Pramod Baviskar

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