Rupee follows Asian currencies

US bond markets are closed today for a holiday. The US dollar is the beneficiary in the absence of major market moving news. The reserve bank of India (RBI) is now intervening in the spot market instead of the previous futures market with two way intervention totaling more than $20 billion in September. This suggests that the current phase of consolidation for the rupee can continue for a longer period than most of us expect. Only big US dollar gains can result in weakness. Euro/usd will see another wave of selling if it trades below 1.2375.

Indian importers are covering their near term payables on dips. Short positions in the rupee will fall due to global positive sentiment on the US dollar. Rupee should follow the Asian currencies for the rest of the week.

Usd/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November):  A break of 61.83 will result in 61.96-62.21. There will be buyers on dips as long as usd/inr trades over 61.61.

Euro/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It needs to trade over 76.77 to rise to 77.29 and 78.02. There will be sellers only if euro/inr trades below 76.77 to 76.49 and 76.12.

Gbp/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It needs to trade over 97.67 to rise to 98.02-98.39. There will be another wave of selling below 97.67 to 97.49 and 97.32.

Jpy/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Further sell off will be there if and only if jpy/inr trades below 53.49 with 54.02 as the resistance.

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Pramod Baviskar

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