European Market week ahead 27 Feb to 3 march 2017

Ftse 100 weekly outlook for 27 Feb to 3 march 2017

Ftse 100 weekly outlook for 27 Feb to 3 march 2017

#global #market #weekly: #ftse closed with loss. Outlook bearish and hit both given tgt 7285 now correcting towards support 7190.

Cac 40 weekly outlook for 27 Feb to 3 march 2017

Cac 40 weekly outlook for 27 Feb to 3 march 2017

#global #market #weekly: #cac closed with loss. Outlook bearish and hit given tgt 4885 now correcting towards support 4820.

Dax 30 weekly outlook for 27 Feb to 3 march 2017

Dax 30 weekly outlook for 27 Feb to 3 march 2017

#global #market #weekly: #dax closed with gain. Outlook bearish and almost hit given tgt 18875-12120. Now correcting towards support 11640.

European markets weekly technical report 6 to 10 Feb 2017

ftse 100 weekly technical report 6 to 10 Feb 2017

Ftse 100-fresh continuation pattern targets 7280 and 7450

FTSE 100 index this week closed with flat gain on strong recovery at 7188. Ftse this week hit low around 7090 while high was at 7202 and closed near it. On daily chart, FTSE 100 index given trend breakout above 7180 and closed above it. Now expect fresh bullish trend with price targets 7280 and then 7450. On long term charts, FTSE 100 index is heading for 7300 and 7450 levels.

cac 40 weekly technical report 6 to 10 Feb 2017

Cac 40-trend reversal breakout tgts 4880 and 4990

Cac 40 index this week closed with gain on late recovery move at 4825. This week, Cac 40 hit low 4748 while week high point was 4847. Total 100 points range and another positive weekly closing for this French index. Cac 40 on daily chart, given trend breakout above 4815 and entered into bullish trend for short terms. On upside 4880 and then 4990 will be target zones for February series. From long term view, Cac 40 is in bullish trend and is heading for target zones 5175 and 5500.

dax 30 weekly technical report 6 to 10 Feb 2017

Dax 30-remain buy above 11640 for targets 11850-12100

Dax 30 index this week closed at 11651 with loss. Dax this week hit high at 11792 while low was at 11535. Total 250 points drop from top and first weak closing after last eight positive weeks. From short term view, Dax 30 is recovering from lows and expect uptrend continuation above 11640 for big upside short term targets of 11850 and then 12100. From long term view, Dax 30 is bullish trend and heading for targets 12400 and then 13350.

European markets year 2017 technical analysis

FTSE year 2017 technical analysis

FTSE-100 year 2017 outlook-heading for 7650-8200 levels

FTSE 100 Index this week closed with gain. This was sixth gaining week for FTSE 100 future. In these six weeks this index rallied from lows of 6700 to high of 7300+. 600 pints rally in 1 and half month is phenomenal.

For 2017, FTSE 100 index major support as well as breakout level was 6580. Above it this index future will remain buy on dips for investors and expect target of 7650 and then above it next target will be 8200 for this year. Weekly chart momentum is strong bullish and look like FTSE 100 might achieve 7650 in short to medium terms. Below 6580, on weekly closing basis FTSE 100 turn bearish and sell for long term and targets will be 6050 to 5000 in that scenario.

From short term view, FTSE 100 achieved my target of 7280 and now heading for 7450 zone. FTSE 100 is in Bull Run on daily chart and in last 28 session 25 sessions ended with gains.

cac year 2017 technical analysis

CAC index 2017 outlook-heading towards 5170-5500 levels

CAC index this week closed with gain at 4922. This was sixth positive week for this French major index. CAC is also in trending higher with great buying momentum. In last 6 weeks or one and half month’s index soared from lows of 4500 to almost 4950.

For 2017, CAC index price trend and momentum both are strong bullish. 4550 was major support and we saw long term bullish breakout above it and now cac is heading towards long term technical targets of 5170 and then 5500. Weekly closing below 4550 might trigger downtrend for targets 4200 and 3560. CAC index from short term view, heading towards my targets of 4970 and 5100.

dax year 2017 technical analysis

Dax 30 index 2017 outlook-heading for 12400-13300 targets

DAX 30 index this week closed with gain. This was sixth positive week for dax and in these 6 weeks we saw 1300 points rally. From low of 10400 to highs up to 11700, DAX 30 index has given dream run to investors.

DAX 30 index long term price trend and momentum both are strong bullish. On downside 10550 was major support as well as breakout level. Above this level, DAX 30 index 2017 technical targets comes around 12400 to 13300 and dax slowly and steadily moving towards it. For next week, DAX 30 index is looking bullish and after last week’s consolidating will head towards my short term target of 11800 to 12190 levels.

European market weekly outlook for 9-13 Jan 2017

ftse 100 weekly outlook for 9-13 Jan 2017

Ftse weekly-bull run continues for 7280-7445 targets

Ftse 100 index this week closed at 7210. This was fifth positive week for this major market index. Ftse on daily chart is in mini bull market and heading higher without any breadth taking. Rally was started at 6750 level and heading for my swing target of 7280. Above 7280, ftse next target will be 7440. From long term view, ftse in near 2017 target of 7270.

 

cac 40 weekly outlook for 9-13 Jan 2017

CAC weekly-expect target 4975

CAC 40 index this week closed at 4909 with gain. This was fifth gaining week for this major French index. In last 5 weeks we saw almost 400 plus points rally on upward direction. CAC 40 index has given bullish breakout around 4730 level and heading for my bullish positional target of 4970. Above 4970, next major resistance as well as swing target zone will be 5110. On longer term charts, CAC 40 index is in strong bullish trend and heading for 5175 target zone.

 

DAX 30 index weekly outlook for 9-13 Jan 2017

Dax weekly-heading for target 11800

DAX 30 index this week closed at 11599 with gain. This was straight fifth gaining week for this German index. In these 5 weeks dax rallied from low of 10400 to highs of 11600+.

DAX 30 index Is in strong bullish trend and given bullish breakout at 11100 level. On upside 11800 and 12200 are my swing target zones for month of January. From long term view, DAX 30 index is in strong Bull Run and heading for long term target of 12395.

European markets January 2017 technical view

Ftse Bull Run heading for targets 7290 and then 7450

Ftse Bull Run heading for targets 7290 and then 7450

Ftse 100 index this week closed at 7142 with gain. This was fifth weekly gain for this major market. In last 5 weeks this index rallied by almost 500+ points in one way!! Ftse future is in bullish trend and trending higher with great momentum.

Ftse future for month of January remain bullish and buy above 6990 levels. This major month support and fresh buying zone. On upside 7290 and then 7450 are major month resistances as well as target zones in January 2017.

 

Dax fresh momentum targets 11840 and then 12200

Dax fresh momentum targets 11840 and then 12200

DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX this week closed at 11481 with gain. Dax 30 index also in strong bullish trend and closing with gain since last 5 weeks. This week opened strong and this fresh buying momentum suggesting big upside targets.

DAX 30 index monthly outlook for January 2017 remain bullish. On downside major support is way down at 11120. On upside 11840 and 12200 are resistances as well as target zones for month of January. On long term chart, price patterns are strong bullish and suggesting one way rallies for targets 12400 to 13330.

 

Cac index bullish momentum targets 4980 and then 5110

Cac index bullish momentum targets 4980 and then 5110

CAC 40 index this week closed at 4862 with gain. This was fourth week of gain. We saw strong upside move around 4500 levels which was fresh range breakout and cac continue that move in this week also.

CAC 40 index monthly outlook of January 2017 remain bullish and for stock future strategy will remain buy on dips. On downside 4740 is major support for month and above it major dips will remain as buying opportunity. On upside 4980 and then 5110 are resistances as well as target zones for this month.

For 2017, cac looking strong bullish and this weekly chart momentum will take CAC 40 index up to 5185 and then 5510 till year end.

merry christmas 2016

merry christmas 2016

May the melody and spirit of the holidays fill your home with love and peace. I wish you all the best and happy New Year too!

Sterling slips to two-week low vs euro

LONDON, Dec 22- Sterling fell to a two-week low against the euro on Thursday after a survey of British consumers showing a gloomy view of the economy's prospects next year kept it on the defensive against a perky single currency.

It was sterling's fourth consecutive daily fall against the euro, its longest losing streak since August, as it got caught in the slipstream of the single currency's recovery from a 14-year low against the greenback this week.

Sterling slips

Weakness against the euro also kept the pound anchored near a one-month low against the dollar in quiet trading ahead of the Christmas holiday period.

A big jump in households' appetite to make major purchases helped market research company GfK's monthly consumer sentiment index inch up to -7 in December from -8 in November, but this concealed a deterioration in consumers' outlook for 2017.

Expectations for the year to come are now the weakest since just after June's vote to leave the European Union, and before that they were last lower in April 2013, when the economy had suffered a period of sluggish growth.

"Both the economic and financial situation expected by consumers over the next 12 months has deteriorated, and hints that confidence will slide more clearly in the first half of 2017," JP Morgan economist Allan Monks said.

By 0900 GMT sterling was down 0.3 percent at 84.65 pence, edging further away from five-month highs of 83.05 pence touched this month.

The euro was higher against the dollar at $1.0450, up a cent from Tuesday's 14-year low of $1.0350.

Sterling slipped 0.1 percent against the dollar to $1.2341 , drifting back towards Tuesday's one-month low of $1.2311.

Sterling has for the past six months been less sensitive than usual to economic data, driven more by concerns over Britain's departure from the EU. Any signs that a hard Brexit, in which Britain loses access to the single market, is on the cards have tended to drive down the currency, with signs to the contrary giving it a boost.

Ftse 100 futures- hit swing target 6970 next tgt 7140

Ftse 100 index future technical outlook

Ftse 100 index future technical outlook

Ftse spot on last trading session closed at 6968. This index is in uptrend and after breakout above 6820 in December 2016, futures achieved my first month swing target of 6970.

 

Ftse daily chart price trend, patterns and indicators all are strong bullish and after small correction suggesting breakout and then upside up to 7140. This will be my second monthly swing target.

 

Ftse future on downside has strong support zones at 6880 and then 6850. These will be fresh buying levels for traders.

FTSE weekly chart is relative strong and suggesting big upside for this English market in longer terms. Expect 7550 to 7800 levels in next 6 to 12 month time period.

Dax reversal rally-hit December targets 10900 and 11160

Dax daily chart technical analysis

Dax daily chart technical analysis

DAX this week closed at 11190 with huge gains. Dax future at start of December given dip below major support of 10550 but that was clear trap and from that level we saw almost 750 points rally in this major market index.

 

DAX future achieved my December bullish targets of 10900 and 11160. Above 11160, dax will entered into super bullish stage and if sustain above 11160 on daily closing basis then expect super bull run targets at 11525 and then 11800 till end of December 2016.

 

From long term view, on weekly chart, this move is breakout candle and has its target at 12300 which can be expect in next 4 to 6 month if dax sustain above 10800 zone.

WORLD STOCKS HOLD NEAR 16-MONTH HIGHS

LONDON: World stocks held near 16-month highs on Friday, set for a strong weekly gain, while the euro fell further after the European Central Bank's decision to extend its stimulus programme.

The MSCI World index was up 0.2 percent, on track for a gain of 2.7 percent for the week.

The index was less than 0.1 percent below Thursday's peak, which was its highest level since August 2015. On Wall Street, US futures were flat.

European shares hit their highest level for 11 months, and were set for their best week since February, following the ECB's decision to trim the size of its bond-buying programme while also extending it for longer than many analysts had expected.

WORLD STOCKS

The ECB said it would reduce its monthly asset buys to 60 billion euros ($63.7 billion) as of April, from the current 80 billion euros, and extend purchases to December from March - three months longer than some analysts had forecast.

That dragged down two-year yields across Europe and sharply steepened the yield curve, a gift for banks that typically borrow short maturities and lend long.

European bank stocks pulled back on Friday, dropping 0.5 percent, but were still up nearly 10 percent for the week, with the sector set for its biggest weekly rise since December 2011.

One month on from November's US presidential election, world stocks have gained nearly 4 percent, with Wall Street spurred to all time highs on hopes of higher growth and inflation as a result of President-elect Donald Trump's planned fiscal stimulus.

Analysts said that signs the ECB would continue to provide monetary support for as long as needed complemented the promise of fiscal stimulus, in a welcome cocktail for investors.

"Markets already excited by the prospect of a fiscal stimulus wave via a Trump election look in line to get more of both fiscal and monetary stimulus from next year," said Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets. "(That's) the best of both worlds for investors."

In all, Europe's STOXX 600 was up 0.6 percent. The euro dipped for a second day, after Thursday's ECB announcement drove its biggest daily loss against the dollar since Britain's vote to leave the European Union in June.

It was trading around $1.0576, down nearly 0.4 percent against the dollar, having spiked as high as $1.0875 on Thursday in initial reaction to the ECB move.

The dovish tone of the ECB also saw a fall in euro zone borrowing costs, led by Southern Europe, though some said 2016 was the high water mark for monetary easing.

"You have to say central bank stimulus has peaked in 2016," said Charles Mackenzie, chief investment officer, fixed income, at Fidelity International.

"The ECB are committed to keep quantitative easing continuing, and Bank of Japan has some way to run, so there's still a lot of QE going into 2017, but you have to say it has peaked."

The ECB's bond purchase changes came less than a week before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Interest rate futures, implied traders saw a 98 percent chance the US central bank would raise interest rates by a quarter point next week, and about a 50 percent chance it would raise rates by at least another quarter point by June 2017, according to CME Group's FedWatch program.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rival currencies, was up 0.2 percent on the day at 101.32, up 0.6 percent for the week.

The dollar was up 0.6 percent at 114.72 yen, moving back toward last week's 10-month high of 114.83 yen. Asian shares edged down on Friday but were on track for weekly gains.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.2 percent, posting a weekly gain of 2 percent.

Japan's Nikkei stock index ended 1.2 percent up at its highest closing level since December 2015.

The Nikkei earlier topped the 19,000-level for the first time in a year, as investors saw both the weak yen and prospects of Trump adopting reflationary policies benefiting Japan's major exporters.

Oil built on its gains after rebounding overnight on growing optimism that non-OPEC producers might follow the cartel's lead by agreeing to cut output.

US crude added 0.9 percent to $51.32 a barrel. Brent crude rose 0.7 percent to $54.23.

Spot gold was down 0.4 percent to 1,166.1 an ounce and was set for a weekly decline of 0.9 percent, pressured by the stronger US dollar and expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates next week.

Copyright Reuters, 2016

ECB spooks markets with stimulus slowdown

reuters-A signal from the European Central Bank that it would slow its stimulus programme from April next year spooked bond and money markets on Thursday and triggered a short sharp surge in the euro.

Stock markets .FTEU3 took the move in their stride with a closely-followed global index .MIWD00000PUS extending a three-month high but the decision to reduce the long-running bond buying scheme from April stunned debt markets.

ECB spooks markets

Italy and Spain lead falls in euro zone bonds, with 10-Year yields up 13-14 basis points on the day, while banking stocks in contrast cheered the prospect of an end to relentless low-interest pressure which has been putting pressure on profits.

"From April 2017, the net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of 60 billion euro until the end of December 2017, or beyond," the ECB said, detailing the move that will drop the purchases from 80 billion a month at present.

The euro surged by almost a cent after the bank's statement to hit $1.0875, but it quickly retreated to $1.0753 - flat on the day. EUR=

After initially turning negative following the ECB announcement, European shares extended gains with the STOXX last trading up 0.6 percent, underpinned by strong gains among banking sector stocks .SX7P.

Euribor money market futures <0#FEI:> fell as much 8 bps across the 2017-2020 curve as investors moved to price in a slim chance of a rise in euro zone interest rates late next year.

"The bank has extended its quantitative easing programme until December which is more than what the market was expecting," said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at ThinkMarkets.

"However, the bank is going to reduce their firepower after March and will only be purchasing 60 billion. So you can say that the bank is tapering in a more dovish way."

FINE CHINA

The gains in European .FTEU3 and world stocks .MIWD00000PUS, came after Asian shares had risen to one-month highs overnight while Wall Street futures pointed to U.S. markets adding modestly to record highs set on Wednesday.

Risk appetite got a boost earlier when China reported upbeat trade figures, with exports and imports both beating forecasts. Resource imports were strong, a major reason prices for bulk commodities have been rising.

The resource-heavy and China-sensitive Australian market jumped 1.2 percent, as did MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS.

A record peak for Samsung (005930.KS) helped lift South Korea .KS11 2 percent and Tokyo's Nikkei .N225 gained 1.45 percent as it brushed off a disappointing downward revision to Japan's third-quarter growth.

"The (China data) improvement reflects a strengthening in global demand, with recent business surveys suggesting that developed economies are on track to end the year on a strong note," said Capital Economics' Julian Evans-Pritchard.

In commodity markets, oil steadied after slipping on doubts that production cuts promised by OPEC and Russia would be deep enough to end a supply overhang. [O/R]

Brent futures LCOc1 were up 18 cent at $53.22 and U.S. crude CLc1 inched to $49.95, and Russia announced it had sold a 10.5 billion-euro, 19.5 percent stake in oil giant Rosneft (ROSN.MM) to Qatar and commodities trader Glencore. (GLEN.L)

Gold XAU= nudged higher and commodities including iron ore and coking coal held recent hefty gains as Chinese demand drove steel prices to their highest since April 2014.

China's imports of iron ore, crude oil, coal, soybeans and copper all surged in November, customs data showed.

Back in the currency market, New Zealand's dollar was also big gainer amongst the major currencies after its central bank head made it clear the bank was probably done with cutting interest rates.

EUR/USD forecast-Bounce back is over? Remain sell

Euro dollar daily chart analysis

Euro dollar daily chart analysis

Eur usd pair is trading at 1.0743 with loss for the day. We saw strong rally from lows of 1.05 to high of 1.08. On upside 1.08 is strong month pivot resistance for euro and below it, its trend and momentum both are bearish. Euro is trading below it with red candle which signals technical bounce back is over and euro is resuming its primary trend. For month of December, below 1.0810 my eur/usd pair target is at 1.03 and below.

 

For day traders, today high of 1.0770 is stop loss level and expect downside up to 1.0720 to 1.07 in intraday.

 

Eur usd weekly chart is also showing strong gain in this week on sharp short covering in euro. But outlook and trend on weekly chart is still down and expect record low level for euro in longer terms. My medium-long term target for euro is at 1.0.

European stocks and the euro rose as investors bets

reuters-European stocks and the euro rose on Monday, battling back as investors bet that Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's resignation after voters rejected his constitutional reforms would not trigger a snap election in Italy.

Italian stocks broadly languished below the water line but the losses seen as the scale of Renzi's defeat in Sunday's referendum emerged were more than halved.

European stocks and the euro rose

But there was no relief for Italian bonds or banks, which bore the brunt of investor fears that a fresh bout of political turmoil in the euro zone's third-largest economy, and one of its most indebted, could undermine Italy's shaky banking system.

U.S. futures took their cue from the generally positive tone across the rest of Europe and pointed to a rise of about 0.4 percent at the open on Wall Street ESc1.

"Renzi's resignation is likely to lead to a period of higher political uncertainty which comes in the midst of ongoing recapitalization efforts in the Italian banking sector," said Nicola Mai, head of European sovereign credit research at PIMCO.

"Negative market sentiment on the vote is likely to be mitigated by the fact that the market has been expecting a 'No' (vote) and that the ECB remains in play in European sovereign bond markets."

The euro hit a 20-month low of $1.0508 EUR= but roared back two full cents, to above $1.07 for the first time in more than two weeks.

Milan's main bourse fell 2 percent .FTMIB at the opening but was last down 0.6 percent. Italian financials shed more than 3 percent .FTIT8300 as a 5 billion euro rescue plan for Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.MI) hung by a thread.

Europe's FTSEuroFirst index of leading 300 shares .FTEU3 rose 0.8 percent and Germany's DAX .GDAXI rose 1.5 percent.

The referendum outcome was anticipated but the crushing margin of Renzi's defeat - 59 percent to 41 percent - caused the initial alarm.

It also deals a blow to the European Union, which is already reeling from multiple crises and rising anti-establishment sentiment of the kind that led to Britain's shock vote to quit the bloc in June.

Italy's benchmark 10-year bond yield jumped 13 basis points to 2.03 percent, widening the premium investors demand for holding Italian bonds over safer German bonds to 175 bps, before easing slightly.

The strong link between Italy's banking sector and bond market is a major concern for investors. Banks have been hit by concerns over their huge exposure to bad loans built up during years of economic downturn. They also hold large amounts of Italian government debt.

BREXIT IN THE DOCK

Markets had earlier taken some encouragement from the sound defeat in Austria's presidential election of a far-right candidate by a pro-European, which confounding forecasts of a tight race.

The European Central Bank meets on Thursday amid much speculation it will announce a six-month extension of its asset buying program and widen the type of bonds it can purchase.

Earlier in Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS eased 0.4 percent and Japan's Nikkei .N225 closed down 0.8 percent.

China's CSI 300 .CSI300 index tumbled 1.7 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index .HSI retreated 0.7 percent after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump took to Twitter to complain about Chinese economic and military policy.

Wall Street ended Friday on a cautious note, with the Dow .DJI off 0.11 percent, while the S&P 500 .SPX rose 0.04 percent and the Nasdaq .IXIC gained 0.09 percent.

While the U.S. November payroll report on Friday was firm enough to cement expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month, a surprise pullback in wages helped bonds pare a little of their recent losses.

In currencies, the dollar was supported by expectations of a U.S. rate increase this month and more to come next year. The dollar index, .DXY, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global peers, was up 0.2 percent at 100.95.

Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.7 percent to 114.30 yen JPY=.

The New Zealand dollar NZD=, which earlier weakened almost 1 percent to $0.707 after Prime Minister John Key unexpectedly announced his resignation, recovered a little to trade down 0.5 percent at $0.7090.

New Zealand stocks ended the day 0.7 percent lower.

Sterling could be vulnerable to developments in Britain's Supreme Court on Monday, as judges hear the government's appeal against a ruling that the formal process of Brexit cannot begin without parliamentary approval.

The pound was last unchanged at $1.2715 GBP=, having risen to a multi-month high on Thursday on indications from a leading government minister that a "soft Brexit" might be the outcome rather than a "hard Brexit".

"If the government loses its appeal, we could see another leg higher in sterling against the dollar," City Index research director Kathleen Brooks said.

In commodity markets, Brent crude's rally in the wake of last week's historic OPEC production cut continued LCOc1. It rose above $55 a barrel for the first time since July last year.

U.S. Stock Futures Gain After Italian Vote Result

benzinga-U.S. stock futures traded higher in early pre-market trade, as Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi vowed to resign after a defeat in a referendum on constitutional reforms. New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley is set to speak in in New York at 8:30 a.m. ET, while Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans will speak in Chicago at 9:11 a.m. ET. US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for November is schedule for release at 9:45 a.m. ET. The ISM non-manufacturing index for November and the Labor Market Conditions Index for November will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard is set to speak at the Arizona State University, W.P. Carey School at 2:05 p.m. ET.

Wall Street Premarket

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 72 points to 19,230.00, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures gained 7.50 points to 2,199.50. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index surged 20.50 points to 4,759.00.

Oil prices traded higher as Brent crude futures gained 0.44 percent to trade at $54.70 per barrel, while US WTI crude futures also rose 0.35 percent to trade at $51.86 a barrel. The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week November is schedule for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.

 

A Peek Into Global Markets

European markets were higher today, with the Spanish Ibex Index rising 0.50 percent, STOXX Europe 600 Index climbing 0.63 percent and German DAX 30 index gaining 1.36 percent. The UK's FTSE index was trading higher by 0.20 percent, while French CAC 40 Index climbed 1.01 percent.

In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.82 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 0.26 percent, China’s Shanghai Composite Index dipped 1.21 percent and India’s BSE Sensex gained 0.45 percent.

Dax monthly-bearish breakdown targets 10275 and 9910

DAX index December 2016 outlook

DAX index December 2016 outlook

Dax 30 index on last trading session closed with heavy loss at 10513. DAX daily chart price trend and momentum both are bearish.

For month of December 2016, DAX entered into bearish territory and heading lower. Below 10550, DAX future will remain sell for targets 10275 and 9910. Expect reversal of trend if DAX gives weekly closing above 10550. On reversal expect bullish trend and bullish targets of 10900 and 11100 for DAX future.

From long term view, DAX future below 10850 remain weak and absolute sell for deep downside target of 9250.

FTSE monthly- remain weak below 6825 tgts 6640 and 6510

FTSE monthly- remain weak below 6825 tgts 6640 and 6510

FTSE 100 index December 2016 outlook

FTSE 100 index last closed at 6730 with loss. On chart, FTSE price trend and momentum both looks weak and given bearish breakdown below 6825.

For month of December 2016, FTSE below 6825 remain sell or bearish and heads towards my targets 6640 and 6510. Though short term charts indicators are entering oversold area so keep strict stop loss for sell positions.

Expect reversal and uptrend above 6825 only on weekly closing basis. On reversal breakout, go long and expect targets up to 6960 and then 7140.

Italy referendum 2016

WASHINGTON - Italy may be the next stop on the world’s journey to more economic nationalism. First we had Brexit — Britain’s decision to leave the European Union. Then we had the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president, pledging to put “America first” in his policies. Now Italy may be treading down the same path.

What’s at issue is a constitutional referendum, scheduled for Sunday, that would make it easier for the parliament to pass measures intended to improve a lackluster economy. But the latest polls suggest the referendum will fail, placing Italy in a precarious economic and political position.

Italy referendum

Almost everyone agrees that Italy’s economic performance needs help. According to figures from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), growth of the economy (gross domestic product) has been limping along at less than 1 percent annually, while unemployment is about 11.5 percent. Government debt is 132 percent of GDP.

In an ideal world, faster economic growth would enable Italy to pay down its debt and reduce unemployment. But Italy’s political system is “gridlocked,” says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute, a U.S. think tank.

It’s hard to loosen the economy’s shackles. The legislature has upper and lower houses that must pass identical bills; there is no reconciliation system of differences as exists in the U.S. Congress. Coalitions are often unwieldy because there’s no effective limit on small parties, and legislators often switch their allegiances.

The referendum would reduce these obstacles, says Kirkegaard. First, the powers of the upper chamber would be confined to local issues and its members would be appointed, not elected. Next, a party in the lower house that obtained 40 percent of the vote would automatically receive enough extra seats to give it a majority.

The idea is to centralize power, making it easier to streamline the economy. Presumably, if the referendum passes, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi would propose policies covering labor markets, taxes, regulations and government spending.

But if the referendum fails, the spillover effects for Italy and the rest of Europe could be nasty. Writing in The Hill, economist Desmond Lachman of the right-of-center American Enterprise Institute put it this way:

“Italy could be in for a prolonged period of political and economic uncertainty. Such an outcome could throw into question the country’s continued euro membership” — its use of the euro as money — “and could raise basic questions as to the eurozone’s chances for survival in its present form.”

A widely agreed vulnerability is Italy’s banking system, which is heavily invested in weak loans and Italian government debt. According to the OECD, about 18 percent of banks’ business loans are “non-performing,” meaning interest or principle aren’t being paid on time.

“If you have a crisis in the Italian banking sector,” said economist Megan Greene of Manulife Asset Management on CNBC, the business-news cable channel, “that could spread across Europe.” A banking crisis would probably involve panicky withdrawals from suspect banks.

If the referendum is rejected, some blame will likely be heaped on growing nationalism and distrust of distant bureaucracies — this time the headquarters of the European Union in Brussels, which has urged Italy to overhaul its economy. But there’s another factor as well: Renzi’s declaration that he would resign if the referendum failed.

The presumption is that after a failed referendum and a Renzi resignation, a temporary government would be appointed and a general election called. One winner is likely to be the Five Star Movement, an anti-establishment and environmental party that has been critical of the European Union.

Robert Samuelson is a syndicated columnist.

Stock markets turned lower in Europe on Thursday

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Stocks turned lower in Europe on Thursday while the price of oil continued to rise, boosted by OPEC's decision to cut output as well as data showing Chinese manufacturing is growing.

KEEPING SCORE: Britain's FTSE 100 was down 1.1 percent at 6,710 while France' CAC 40 shed 0.6 percent to 4,551. Germany's DAX fell 0.8 percent to 10,560. European economies are net importers of oil, so the big increases in energy prices this week could weigh on the region somewhat

Stock markets turned lower

Futures augured a lackluster start on Wall Street. Dow futures remained nearly unchanged while S&P futures slipped 0.1 percent.

OIL: Oil prices continued to rise after surging Wednesday thanks to the output cut agreement among OPEC nations, which collectively produce more than one-third of the world's oil. They agreed to trim production by 1.2 million barrels a day starting in January. The price of U.S. crude was up another 45 cents to $49.89 a barrel in New York. The contract surged $4.21 on Wednesday, the biggest one-day gain since February. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 76 cents to $52.60 a barrel in London.

CHINA DATA: The monthly purchasing managers' index by the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that Chinese factory activity rose to 51.7 points in November, its highest in more than two years. The index, a widely watched indicator of China's outsize manufacturing sector, is based on a 100-point scale, with numbers below 50 indicating contraction.

ANALYST'S TAKE: "China's official PMI manufacturing surprised on the upside," said Jingyi Pan, a market strategist at IG in Singapore. "This is the highest level seen since July 2014 and could add to the wave of optimism in the markets today."

ASIA'S DAY: Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 1.1 percent to 18,513.12 while South Korea's Kospi closed flat at 1,983.75. China's Shanghai Composite Index added 0.7 percent to 3,273.31 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 0.4 percent to 22,878.23.

CURRENCIES: The dollar was under pressure, as it often is when oil prices rise significantly. It dropped to 114.36 yen from 114.44 yen. The euro rose to $1.0631 from $1.0595.

Dax might underperform remain sell below 10650

Dax might underperform remain sell below 10650

DAX 30 index forecast

DAX 30 index last closed at 10620. Dax future on chart looking weak and underperforming as compared to other major global indices. Below 10650 remain weak and sell for downside targets of 10400. Daily chart price pattern and indicators are mixed but one downside move can be expected up to 10400 and then upside rally. If slips below 10400 on price action as well as on volume expect deep downside target up to 10135 for dax futures.

Dax weekly chart is showing index is facing strong supply from market around 10850 and showing reversal signal which is very bearish from medium to long term view. If sustain below 10850 then expect deep sell off targets up to 9250 in longer terms. Look like something bad is coming for German market??

Weekly- CAC above 4480 remain buy

Weekly- CAC above 4480 remain buy

CAC 40 weekly forecast for 21 to 25 November 2016

CAC 40 index this week closed flat negative on profit booking. After last 2 weeks volatile move traders and investors taking some profits out of the table. Cac is consolidating around major support of 4480.

Above this level cac will remain bullish and buy for targets 4610 which was already achieved in last short covering rally. Above 4610 next positional target as well as major resistance for CAC future will be 4700.