U.S. Dollar at New Six Month Low

insidefutures-Futures firmed due to higher crude oil prices and the stronger than expected April Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index, which increased to .49 last month from .7 in March. U.S. Dollar at New Six Month Low Of the 95% of S&P 500 companies that have reported results so far for the first quarter, 75% of them have beat earnings estimates.
Nothing has changed in our long term outlook. The main trend for stock index futures is higher. CURRENCY FUTURES The U.S. dollar fell to a fresh six month low today in spite of the increased probabilities of a fed funds rate hike next month. The U.S. dollar index continues to underperform the news, which should be viewed as a sign of weakness.
The euro currency advanced after Merkel was quoted as saying “The euro is too weak and that’s because of ECB policy, and so German products are cheap in relative terms.”
There was additional support for the currency of the euro zone when Germany’s central bank said it expects the country’s economy to grow strongly in the current quarter.
The Japanese yen is higher in spite of news that Japanese export and import growth slowed in April compared to a month ago.
According to Japan’s Ministry of Finance, the value of exports grew by 7.5% compared to a year earlier, which is down from the 12% increase reported in March.
Higher crude prices supported the “commodity currencies,” the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES Federal Reserve speakers today are Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari at 9:00, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker at 9:30, Neel Kashkari again at 5:45, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard 6:00 and Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans at 8:30 this evening. The probability of a rate hike at the June 14 Federal Open Market Committee meeting is 83%, which compares to 74% on Friday. Once the domestic political and global geopolitical issues settle down, the dominant influences of a stronger global economy and rising global inflation will ultimately take futures lower, especially at the long end of the curve. SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE June 17 S&P 500 Support 2375.00 Resistance 2391.00 June 17 U.S. Dollar Index Support 96.620 Resistance 97.470 June 17 Euro Currency Support 1.11590 Resistance 1.12790 June 17 Japanese Yen Support .89550 Resistance .90110 June 17 Canadian Dollar Support .73770 Resistance .74310 June 17 Australian Dollar Support .7421 Resistance .7485 June 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds Support 153^16 Resistance 154^4 June 17 Gold Support 1249.0Resistance 1263.0 July 17 Copper Support 2.5250 Resistance 2.5700 July 17 Crude Oil Support 50.58 Resistance 51.77

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